Data Used
Under 18 conception rates for all top tier local authorities from Teenage Pregnancy Unit, 1992-2008.  Data are available at http://www.everychildmatters.gov.uk/resources/IG00200/

Targets are local targets as defined in "Local Authority Teenage Pregnancy Analysis" produced by Teenage Pregnancy Unit, and available at http://www.everychildmatters.gov.uk/health/teenagepregnancy/statistics/

Forecasting Method
All forecasting was produced using Holt's method (i.e. Holt Winter's exponential smoothing with no seasonality).

These forecasts, including confidence intervals were produced using Forecast Pro XE Version 5.1.1.21 Unicode.

As the data are based on rates, the logarithm of the data was taken before it was forecast; the exponential of the forecasts was then taken.

This method of transformations ensures that no forecasts produce a negative rate.

Starting values and smoothing parameters were chosen by Forecast Pro.

The values given for the Forecast Confidence Intervals place a significance of 2.5% in each tail; i.e. they are 95% confidence intervals.